This project has been completed, please visit the ETHPOP database webpage for updates on our work, data download and newest publications and presentations relating to this project!

Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas: dissemination of innovative data inputs, model outputs, documentation and skills

1 October 2010 to 30 September 2011, ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0162

Population projections of future populations by ethnic group are a "necessary element in the armoury of available national demographic data" (Haskey 2002: viii). These aid provision of appropriate housing and language support and inform political and social science debates.   In ESRC project "What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas" (RES- 165-25-0032) we developed a demographic model to project the ethnic populations of the UK’s local areas with the results portraying how ethnic diversity may change up to mid-century. This 'follow-on' project aims to increase the impact of our research b

  • providing the widest possible access to and understanding of the project outputs
  • ensuring the validity and quality of the project outputs
  • enhancing the skills and knowledge of users of demographic data.

During this project we will:

  • make data available through a web interface from which users can download our projection outputs
  • make project results accessible to users of POPGROUP and SASPAC systems
  • update component estimates using the latest available demographic data, consult with users and experts and get feedback on methods and outputs
  • skill people in projection methods through a summer school and conference and develop training materials into a textbook
  • disseminate analyses by developing innovative illustrations of population related data.
     
Now completed

What happens when international migrants settle?
Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas

1 October 2007 to 31 March 2010, ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032

This project is now completed. It aims were to understand demographic changes that the UK’s local ethnic populations presently experience and will experience in the future. We  investigated how differences in ethnic fertility and mortality shape current and future population trends, how international migration and internal migration impact the size and ethnic composition of local populations. The project team  built projections of ethnic group populations for local areas and used the projection model to explore alternative futures. To carry out the projections, the project was engaged in:

  • Estimating ethnic group fertility using alternative data sources.

  • Estimating ethnic group mortality through indirect modelling.

  • Building a databank of international migration for local areas from census, survey and administrative data sets and estimating long-term and short-term immigration and emigration.

  • Building estimates of internal migration for ethnic groups using census and register data.

  • Developing a population projection model of ethnic populations for local areas that incorporates best current practice, that includes ethnic mixing; origin to destination migration rates and is adapted to handle different ethnic group classifications in the UK’s constituent countries.