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School of Geography

CSAP Projects

Modelling and Simulation for E-Social Sciences (MOSES)

PI: Mark Birkin (University of Leeds)

Co-I: Martin C Clarke (University of Leeds), Haibo Chen (University of Leeds), Justin Keen (University of Leeds), Jie Xu (University of Leeds), Peter Dew (University of Leeds), Philip Rees (University of Leeds)

Overview: The objective of the project is to develop representation of the entire UK population as individuals and households, together with a package of modelling tools which allows specific research and policy questions to be addressed.  Thus our aims are to create a synthetic model of the whole UK population; to demonstrate a forecasting capability for the population model; to develop case study applications with specific reference to health, business and transport, including evaluation of wider-ranging policy scenarios; and to create a generic framework for the application of policy and simulation tools to social science problem domains.

Our programme seeks to combine methodological advances within core social science domains, particularly geography, with the development and application of a sophisticated computational infrastructure for decision support systems using the latest technology for Grid computing.  The advances which we will seek to achieve include the creation of a dynamic, real-time, individually-based demographic forecasting model; for defined policy scenarios, to facilitate integration of data and reporting services, including GIS, with modelling, forecasting and optimisation tools, based on a secure grid services architecture; to use hybrid agent-based simulations to articulate the connections between individual level and structural change in social systems; and to provide high level capability for the articulation of unique evidence-based user scenarios for social research and policy analysis.

Start Date: 01 April 2005

End Date: 30 September 2008

Funder: Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

Grant Reference: RES-149-25-0034