Prof PH Rees and Dr JCH Stillwell
1st May 2001 – 30th November 2001
DETR
The Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) wishes to develop a model to investigate the impacts of alternative economic and policy scenarios on population migration in order to inform the development of policy.
The aim of the contract variation is to refine and improve the migration model; prepared by Professor Tony Chapman et al for DETR under Contracts RADS 5/5/22. This will be done by using standard econometric techniques to test for data and specification problems that could determine the reliability of the model. It will involve analysis of goodness of fit, multicollinearity, and detailed investigation into the errors and confidence intervals on parameter estimates. At each stage the contractors will be required to demonstrate that the enhanced model is consistent with rigorous economic theory. This will involve a clear exposition of the postulated behavioural effects and influences between independent and dependent variables.
The extension will also provide a scoping report on two methodological elements which could form the basis of phase three of the long term research programme (phase three will be commissioned by competitive tender). Work here will not go beyond a discussion of the methodological and practical issues that may be encountered.